Background:
Computational models of tobacco control policies that project their estimated impact on smoking and population health can be used to inform public health decision-making. To date, such models have not been made widely accessible for exploration by the general public or policymakers. We describe the iterative development process for extending a microsimulation model to evaluate the effects of tobacco control policies. The results from these simulations have been integrated into an interactive website for use by decision-makers and the public.

Methods:
We adapt the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) microsimulation model to estimate the population health effects of four tobacco control interventions in the United States: 1) cigarette taxes, 2) smoke-free air laws, 3) tobacco control program expenditures, and 4) the minimum age of legal access to tobacco. The results of these simulations were pre-generated and then integrated into the Tobacco Control Policy (TCP) tool, a dynamic, interactive web-based user interface that allows the user to specify their own proposed policy conditions and explore the estimated effects of that policy on population health outcomes in the US through 2060. Three rounds of usability testing were conducted with experts in tobacco control during web development to improve the interface and ensure that it was responsive to user needs.

Results:
Model outcomes for each user-specified policy scenario include projections of future smoking prevalence, the number of deaths avoided, and the number of life-years gained. To increase its utility to state-level decision-makers, the model was extended to estimate these outcomes for each of the 50 states and Washington DC. The TCP tool website is available at http://www.tobaccopolicyeffects.org.



[TCP tool estimates of select policy scenarios]



Conclusions:
The TCP tool supports public health decision-making by allowing users to access the results of a complex microsimulation model of smoking and explore the potential health benefits of implementing tobacco control policies in their jurisdictions.