BACKGROUND: Chile has enacted laws and decrees to control tobacco consumption, achieving high compliance with the World Health Organization's (WHO) MPOWER measures. Despite the progress, the prevalence of tobacco use in Chile remains among the highest in the Americas. This study aims to identify the factors affecting tobacco consumption in Chile, especially considering the effects of age, period, cohort, and the impacts of laws implemented since 2006 and gender between 1994 and 2020.
METHODS: This study uses regularly collected public surveys with information on tobacco consumption prevalence for the general population (ages 12-64) with a total sample of 268123 individuals. The probability of tobacco consumption is estimated using an age-period-cohort (APC) model. Grouping variables into different age ranges addresses the identification problem inherent to APC models.
RESULTS: The results suggest a decrease in monthly tobacco consumption prevalence in Chile over time, particularly after 2006, when the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control was ratified. Laws have had a negative effect on the probability of consuming tobacco, particularly among individuals aged 12 to 24 and 47 to 64. These laws have a limited impact on those aged 25 to 46 and women. Additionally, individuals born after 1990 show a lower prevalence of tobacco use compared to previous generations.
CONCLUSIONS: Chile has made significant progress in reducing tobacco consumption, especially among young people (12-24 years), due to early-life exposure to tobacco control laws. However, individuals aged 25 to 46 years and women have not seen the same results. To reduce new smokers and premature deaths, it is crucial to strengthen tobacco control policies, particularly by increasing tobacco taxes. These measures should target the entire population but focus specifically on individuals aged 25 to 46 and women, as they have proven to be the most cost-effective in reducing tobacco consumption.