BACKGROUND: Smoking remains the leading preventable cause of cancer accounting for 25% of cancer deaths globally. In 2013, Ireland committed to a tobacco endgame goal that was due to be delivered by 2025. Using data from the National Cancer Registry of Ireland we aimed to examine trends in tobacco-related cancers between 1994-2022.
METHODS: National and sex-specific age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were calculated per 100,000 person years for 16 cancers designated tobacco-related by the International Association for Research on Cancer (oral cavity, pharynx, nasopharynx, oesophagus, stomach, colorectal, liver, pancreas, sino-nasal, larynx, lung, cervix, ovary, kidney, bladder, acute myeloid leukaemia). Joinpoint regression was used to assess trends, annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change in incidence and mortality rates for each cancer.
RESULTS: Trends in age-standardised incidence and mortality for most tobacco-related cancers were declining or stable. Some disparities by gender were observed. For example, age-standardised lung cancer incidence rate in males decreased significantly at (APC) -0.6% per year during 1994-2017 subsequently declining at –4.9% per year during 2017-2022. Mortality rates in males declined at -1.5% per year 1994-2013 and at -3.6% per year during 2013-2022. By contrast, age-standardised lung cancer incidence in females increased at 2.3% per year during 1994-2015 then declined by -1.9% per year from 2015-2022. Mortality rates increased in females by 0.6% per year from 1994-2016 and only started to decline (-2.8% per year) since 2016.
CONCLUSIONS: Recent declining trends in incidence and mortality for tobacco-related cancers reflect successful public health efforts to reduce smoking prevalence in Ireland. Differing trends in incidence of lung cancer according to sex likely reflect a cohort effect in smoking patterns over time - emphasising the link between reducing rates of tobacco-smoking and future cancer prevention. These findings underline the importance of delivering the tobacco endgame goal to achieving cancer control in Ireland.