BACKGROUND: Tobacco tax increases are a cost-effective method to reduce smoking prevalence, particularly among low socioeconomic groups. However, in response to tax increases, price-sensitive individuals may turn to cheaper, untaxed alternatives, including illicit tobacco, rather than quitting. This study estimates the use of untaxed tobacco, including unbranded and non-plain-packaged (PP) cigarettes among Australian adults who smoked between 2013 and 2022-2023. It also explores the associations between sociodemographic and smoking characteristics, and untaxed tobacco use.
METHODS: Weighted multinomial logistic regression was applied to combined data from Australia’s National Drug Strategy Survey, a nationally representative triennial survey conducted in 2013, 2016, 2019, and 2022-2023. The sample were 12596 adults who smoked at least monthly.
RESULTS: Untaxed tobacco use decreased from 12.2% in 2013 to 8.6% in 2016 but rose to 9.9% in 2019 and 16.5% in 2022-2023, including 7.6% using exclusive non-PP packs, 6.5% using unbranded tobacco, and 2.4% using both. Compared to 2013, exclusive unbranded tobacco use and dual use with non-PP packs significantly doubled in 2022-2023. Factors associated with unbranded tobacco use included being outside the labour force (aRRR=2.00, 95% CI=1.47–2.74, vs. currently employed), high psychological distress (aOR=1.95, 95% CI=1.41 to 2.7, vs. low), past-year illicit substance use (aRRR=1.71, 95% CI=1.08 to 2.71), heavy smoking (aRRR=2.61, 95% CI=1.56 to 4.36, vs. non-daily), and exclusive roll-your-own tobacco use (aRRR=2.57, 95% CI=1.83 to 3.62, vs. exclusive factory-made cigarette use). Exclusive non-PP pack use was associated with past-year illicit substance use (aRRR=1.54, 95% CI=1.11 to 2.14) and no intention to quit (aRRR=0.75, 95% CI=0.59 to 0.96).
CONCLUSIONS: The rise in unbranded tobacco use and dual use with non-PP packs highlights the need to implement targeted interventions to address untaxed tobacco consumption and to monitor trends in untaxed tobacco use following the 2023–2025 5% tobacco tax increases.