BACKGROUND: Illicit cigarette trade has significant economic and public health implications. It leads to governments tax revenue losses due to the evasion of tobacco taxes, and often these cigarettes are cheaper ones therefore increasing cigarette consumption. The objective is to estimate the Illicit cigarette trade and tax evasion in Zambia and establish its associated factors.
METHODS: A cross sectional survey was used to collect empty cigarette packs from the retailers and street/bins in 25 districts covering 10 Provinces of Zambia. We used a descriptive analysis to calculate the proportion of illicit cigarette packs and other specific criteria. Logistic regression was used to model the factors associated with the prevalence of the illicit cigarette market in Zambia.
RESULTS: Of the 118, 344 empty cigarette packs collected (82.0% from the retailers and 18.0% the street/bins), 343 (0.3%) packs did not have a textual health warning in english, 1490 (1.3%) had duty-free stamps even though they were purchased from retail outlets that were not duty-free shops and, 11939 (10.1%) did not have a ZRA stamp. Factors associated with reduced odds of illicit cigarettes sales were non-boarder [AOR 0.17 (CI; 0.13 – 0.23)] and local manufactured [AOR 0.44 (CI; 0.37 – 0.53)].
CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated that 12.2% of the cigarettes sold on the Zambian market is illicit, with 10.1% evading tax. We found that cigarettes from Lusaka province, urban regions, border towns, and those that are imported had higher odds of being illicit. This finding underscores the fact that Zambia should ratify and implement the WHO Protocol on Illicit Tobacco Trade (ITP) to counter the supply of illicit cigarettes.