BACKGROUND: Uruguay's tobacco control policies have significantly reduced consumption, but illicit trade remains a concern. Since 2017, figures on illicit trade have come from industry-funded studies, raising doubts about their objectivity and undermining some control policies. This study aims to provide independent evidence to analyze consumption patterns and estimate the illicit cigarette trade.
METHODS: A stratified survey by sex and age was conducted with 801 adult smokers in the Metropolitan Area of Montevideo, using traffic-related and household data for sampling. Respondents reported purchasing patterns, socioeconomic information, and product characteristics, verified through photographs of cigarette packs. Illicit cigarettes were identified based on brands and the absence of mandatory plain packaging.
RESULTS: Illicit trade represented 21% of consumption in Montevideo and the Metropolitan Area, with most products originating from Paraguay and Brazil. The study found that 54% of illicit cigarettes were purchased in legal outlets, such as neighbourhood stores, warehouses, kiosks, and supermarkets.
CONCLUSIONS: The penetration of illicit cigarette trade has increased compared to previous measurements. While the tobacco industry argues that taxes increase smuggling, it often raises prices independently, showing a strategy to undermine control policies. The high involvement of legal outlets in selling illicit cigarettes and the foreign origin of these products from neighbouring countries highlights the need to regulate distribution channels and strengthen border controls. Implementing the Protocol to Eliminate the Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products is essential to consolidate tobacco control policies in Uruguay.