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CONFERENCE PROCEEDING
Trends and correlates of purchasing illicit tobacco: Findings from the 2016-2022 International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys
1
School of Public Health, The University of Queensland/The NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence on Achieving the Tobacco Endgame, Brisbane, Australia
2
School of Psychology, The University of Queensland/The National Centre for Youth Substance Use Research, Brisbane, Australia
3
Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea (South)
4
Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada
5
School of Public Health Sciences, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada
6
, Ontario Institute for Cancer Research, Toronto, Canada
7
National Addiction Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology, and Neuroscience, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom
8
Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Brighton and Sussex Medical School, Brighton, United Kingdom
9
Department of Health Behavior, Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center, Buffalo, United States
10
School of Psychology, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia
Publication date: 2025-06-23
Tob. Induc. Dis. 2025;23(Suppl 1):A577
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Tobacco taxation is a cost-effective intervention for reducing smoking prevalence. However, with increasing financial hardship in recent years, price-sensitive individuals who do not quit smoking in response to price increases may seek cheaper tobacco such as illicit tobacco. This study examines trends in illicit tobacco purchasing and its associations with participant characteristics among people who smoked cigarettes between 2016 and 2022 in England, Canada, Australia, and the US.
METHODS: Data from individuals who smoke (≥monthly) in four waves (2016-2022) of the International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys across four countries (N=27,248; observations=35251) were analysed. Logistic regression with generalised estimating equations was used to estimate the associations between participant characteristics, survey wave, country, and the purchase of illicit tobacco (smuggled, lacking health warning labels, or without full taxes paid) in the past 6 months.
RESULTS: Prevalence of illicit tobacco purchasing increased in Canada (from 10.2% in 2016 to 16.0% in 2022), England (from 8.7% in 2016 to 13.7% in 2022) and Australia (from 6.0% in 2016 to 21.2% in 2022), with an overall increase across all countries (from 8.3% in 2016 to 13.7% in 2022, p for trend<0.001). Significant survey wave-country interactions were observed (p<0.001), but non-significant survey wave-income interactions (p=0.476). Factors associated with purchasing illicit tobacco included young adult aged 18-34 years (aOR=2.38; 95% CI=1.82-3.12, vs. 55+), male (aOR=1.75; 95% CI=1.49-2.05, vs. female), low income (aOR=1.41; 95% CI=1.15-1.72, vs. high), higher nicotine dependence (aOR=1.08; 95% CI=1.02-1.14), financial hardship (aOR=1.95; 95% CI=1.62-2.35, vs. no), higher perceived stress (aOR=1.11; 95% CI=1.03-1.9), and lower smoking cessation self-efficacy (aOR=1.09; 95% CI=1.02-1.16).
CONCLUSIONS: Greater focus on controlling the illicit tobacco trade is needed, especially in Australia. We identified several factors associated with greater likelihood of purchasing illicit tobacco that could be used to target educational efforts to discourage purchasing illicit tobacco.
METHODS: Data from individuals who smoke (≥monthly) in four waves (2016-2022) of the International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys across four countries (N=27,248; observations=35251) were analysed. Logistic regression with generalised estimating equations was used to estimate the associations between participant characteristics, survey wave, country, and the purchase of illicit tobacco (smuggled, lacking health warning labels, or without full taxes paid) in the past 6 months.
RESULTS: Prevalence of illicit tobacco purchasing increased in Canada (from 10.2% in 2016 to 16.0% in 2022), England (from 8.7% in 2016 to 13.7% in 2022) and Australia (from 6.0% in 2016 to 21.2% in 2022), with an overall increase across all countries (from 8.3% in 2016 to 13.7% in 2022, p for trend<0.001). Significant survey wave-country interactions were observed (p<0.001), but non-significant survey wave-income interactions (p=0.476). Factors associated with purchasing illicit tobacco included young adult aged 18-34 years (aOR=2.38; 95% CI=1.82-3.12, vs. 55+), male (aOR=1.75; 95% CI=1.49-2.05, vs. female), low income (aOR=1.41; 95% CI=1.15-1.72, vs. high), higher nicotine dependence (aOR=1.08; 95% CI=1.02-1.14), financial hardship (aOR=1.95; 95% CI=1.62-2.35, vs. no), higher perceived stress (aOR=1.11; 95% CI=1.03-1.9), and lower smoking cessation self-efficacy (aOR=1.09; 95% CI=1.02-1.16).
CONCLUSIONS: Greater focus on controlling the illicit tobacco trade is needed, especially in Australia. We identified several factors associated with greater likelihood of purchasing illicit tobacco that could be used to target educational efforts to discourage purchasing illicit tobacco.
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