BACKGROUND: Tobacco tax increases are well known as the most cost-effective measure in reducing tobacco consumption and its associated health burden and costs. However, little is known about how these benefits are distributed across population groups. This study aims to measure the socioeconomic disparities in tobacco health burden and costs, and the impact of an increase in tobacco taxes in Argentina.
METHODS: An economic model based on a probabilistic Markov microsimulation model is performed to estimate the health and financial burdens associated with tobacco use and the impact of various tobacco control measures as tobacco tax increases. The model was adapted to include a distributional analysis by socioeconomic groups. Costs are calculated in dollars in 2023.
RESULTS: Over 10 years, the introduction of a 50% increase in the price of cigarettes through taxes generates savings of $5 billion in direct medical costs, $2.4 billion in informal care costs, and $2.5 billion in lost productivity costs, with these savings being significantly greater for the lowest-income group. In the first income quintile, these costs decrease from 35.2% to 30.1% of per capita income, while in the fifth quintile, they decline from 5.4% to 4.9%. Additionally, the tax increase is expected to prevent 46,161 deaths and 198,395 cases, resulting in a gain of 1,664,217 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) among Argentina's population. The lowest income quintile is projected to experience nearly twice as many avoided deaths and disease cases as the highest quintile.
CONCLUSIONS: Implementing tobacco tax increases represents not only a cost-effective intervention but also a strategy with significant equity benefits in Argentina. Such policies have been observed to lead to greater health improvements among the most vulnerable socioeconomic groups while simultaneously alleviating the financial constraints faced by families.