BACKGROUND: Illicit cigarettes, because of their high affordability, can hinder Indonesia’s efforts to reduce its high smoking prevalence. Their presence can also cause significant revenue loss to the government. However, estimating the size of illicit cigarette consumption is challenging due to the country’s large archipelagic territories and complex cigarette pack legitimacy criteria. Thus, the evidence on to what extent illicit cigarettes were consumed in Indonesia has been inconclusive. This study aimed to estimate the consumption size of illicit cigarettes in Indonesia, particularly in six major cities.
METHODS: This study employed an empty-pack survey method with a cluster sampling design. Six Indonesian cities with the highest population density and number of smokers—Jakarta, Bandung, Semarang, Surabaya, Medan, and Makassar—were selected as survey sites. We collected empty cigarette packs discarded on the roads from October 23 to November 4.2024. The forensic analysis of the presence and attributes of tax stamps and pictorial health warnings was then performed to classify packs as licit or illicit.
RESULTS: From a total of 8.173 collected packs, 7.343 (89.8%) were eligible for analysis. Of these, 1.924 packs (19.2%) were considered illicit. The majority of illicit packs consist of packs with unregistered brands, which did not have a tax stamp (79.9%). Among the illicit packs, machine-rolled kreteks—cigarettes with cloves, were the type of cigarettes that were counterfeited the most (66.2%). Comparing the results across the cities, Makassar (31.5%) and Surabaya (32.4%) had the highest prevalence of illicit pack consumption.
CONCLUSIONS: Illicit cigarette consumption in six major Indonesian cities was found to be relatively high. This implies that the government should increase efforts to combat illegal cigarette production and sales, improve trace-and-track measures, and simplify the excise tax structure.