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CONFERENCE PROCEEDING
Effects of strong tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths: The China SimSmoke model study
1
Tobacco Control Office, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
Publication date: 2025-06-23
Tob. Induc. Dis. 2025;23(Suppl 1):A87
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: While China has implemented various tobacco control policies over the past decades, there remains considerable potential to implement policies in line with FCTC. This study aims to estimate the long-term effect of implementing more stringent policies in China.
METHODS: With smoking, population, and policy data specific to China, we used the China SimSmoke model to assess long-term individual and combined effects of seven policies: mass media campaigns, marketing restrictions, tax increases, youth access restrictions, cessation treatment programs, smoke-free air laws, and graphic health warnings. The potential short-term effects of policies in the China SimSmoke model were determined through meta-analysis, the Delphi method, validation, and calibration using data from the China National Adult Tobacco Survey (NATS) based on the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and applied to estimate the smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) from 2023 to 2050.
RESULTS: Results of the meta-analysis indicated differential potential short-term effects for the seven policies. The Delphi expert panel suggested room for further efforts of FCTC policy implementation in China. We calibrated the China SimSmoke model for better model fit. If tobacco control policies remain unchanged in 2022, i.e., the status quo, the China SimSmoke model projects a 15.1% decline in smoking prevalence by 2050. With the implementation of all policies in China, the model predicts that smoking prevalence will be reduced by 39.2% relative to the status quo by 2050, and 1.382.930 premature deaths averted among men, 381.736 premature deaths averted among women from 2023 to 2050.
CONCLUSIONS: The China SimSmoke projections from 2023 to 2050 underscore the impact of policies on alleviating the tobacco health burden in China. Substantial reductions in smoking prevalence and premature mortality can be accomplished by bolstering tobacco control policies in alignment with FCTC recommendations.
METHODS: With smoking, population, and policy data specific to China, we used the China SimSmoke model to assess long-term individual and combined effects of seven policies: mass media campaigns, marketing restrictions, tax increases, youth access restrictions, cessation treatment programs, smoke-free air laws, and graphic health warnings. The potential short-term effects of policies in the China SimSmoke model were determined through meta-analysis, the Delphi method, validation, and calibration using data from the China National Adult Tobacco Survey (NATS) based on the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and applied to estimate the smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) from 2023 to 2050.
RESULTS: Results of the meta-analysis indicated differential potential short-term effects for the seven policies. The Delphi expert panel suggested room for further efforts of FCTC policy implementation in China. We calibrated the China SimSmoke model for better model fit. If tobacco control policies remain unchanged in 2022, i.e., the status quo, the China SimSmoke model projects a 15.1% decline in smoking prevalence by 2050. With the implementation of all policies in China, the model predicts that smoking prevalence will be reduced by 39.2% relative to the status quo by 2050, and 1.382.930 premature deaths averted among men, 381.736 premature deaths averted among women from 2023 to 2050.
CONCLUSIONS: The China SimSmoke projections from 2023 to 2050 underscore the impact of policies on alleviating the tobacco health burden in China. Substantial reductions in smoking prevalence and premature mortality can be accomplished by bolstering tobacco control policies in alignment with FCTC recommendations.
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| eISSN: | 1617-9625 |
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