RESEARCH PAPER
Nomogram to predict successful smoking cessation in a Chinese outpatient population
Ning Zhu# 1
,   Shanhong Lin# 2,   Chao Cao 1,   Ning Xu 1,   Xiaopin Yu 3,   Xueqin Chen 4  
 
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1
Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Ningbo First Hospital, Ningbo, China
2
Department of Ultrasound, Ningbo First Hospital, Ningbo, China
3
Department of Prevention and Health Care, Ningbo First Hospital, Ningbo, China
4
Department of Traditional Medicine, Ningbo First Hospital, Ningbo, China
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Xueqin Chen   

Department of Traditional Medicine, Ningbo First Hospital, 59 Liuting Street, Ningbo 315010, Zhejiang Province, China
Publication date: 2020-10-16
 
Tob. Induc. Dis. 2020;18(October):86
 
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
# Contributed equally, co-first authors
ABSTRACT
Introduction:
The study aimed to establish and internally validate a nomogram to predict successful smoking cessation in a Chinese outpatient population.

Methods:
A total of 278 participants were included, and data were collected from March 2016 to December 2018. Predictors for successful smoking cessation were evaluated by 3-month sustained abstinence rates. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to select variables for the model to predict successful smoking cessation, and multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to establish a novel predictive model. The discriminatory ability, calibration, and clinical usefulness of the nomogram were determined by the concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, and decision curve analysis, respectively. Internal validation with bootstrapping was performed.

Results:
The nomogram included living with a smoker or experiencing workplace smoking, number of outpatient department visits, reason for quitting tobacco, and varenicline use. The nomogram demonstrated valuable predictive performance, with a C-index of 0.816 and good calibration. A high C-index of 0.804 was reached with interval validation. Decision curve analysis revealed that the nomogram for predicting successful smoking cessation was clinically significant when intervention was conducted at a successful cessation of smoking possibility threshold of 19%.

Conclusions:
This novel nomogram for successful smoking cessation can be conveniently used to predict successful cessation of smoking in outpatients.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We are deeply grateful to all the smokers who were associated with our medical practice.
CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
The authors have each completed and submitted an ICMJE form for disclosure of potential conflicts of interest. The authors declare that they have no competing interests, financial or otherwise, related to the current work. All the authors report grants from the Science and Technology Innovation 2025 Major Project of Ningbo (2019B10037), during the conduct of the study.
FUNDING
This study was supported by the Science and Technology Innovation 2025 Major Project of Ningbo (2019B10037).
PROVENANCE AND PEER REVIEW
Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.
 
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