Background: Tobacco
industry estimates the share of illegal cigarettes in India at more than 20% of
the total cigarette market and claims it has doubled over the past 10 years.
However, there is a paucity of independent and scientifically verifiable
estimates of illicit trade in cigarettes in India. This study, for the first
time, intends to fill that void.
Methods: The
study employed a modified approach to cigarette pack analysis. Empty cigarette
packs from a single day's sale were collected at close of business directly from
retail cigarette vendors in four metro cities and four smaller towns covering
the length and breadth of India. Ten areas based on pin codes were randomly
selected from each city/town and all shops selling cigarettes within one kilometer
were surveyed. The study considered a cigarette pack to be illicit if it had at
least one of the following attributes: (a) has a duty free sign; (b) has no
graphic health warnings; (c) has no textual health warnings; or (d) has no
mention of "price inclusive of all taxes" or similar text.
Results: A
total of 11,063 empty cigarette packs were collected from 1,727 retailers and
2.73% of these cigarette packs were classified as illicit. The estimates varied
substantially across locations with the highest prevalence of illicit packs being
in Aizawl (36%). The share of illicit was found to be much higher (13.77%) among
the cheapest cigarette brands. Illicit cigarettes are primarily distributed via
more structured general stores compared to relatively informal tea/pan shops.
Conclusions: Our
estimate of the illicit cigarette market share of 2.73% casts serious doubt on
the tobacco industry estimates. It appears that any concerns of illicit
cigarette trade in India should not hinder the government from raising tobacco
taxes.
CITATIONS(1):
1.
Extent of illicit cigarette market from single stick sales in Ghana: findings from a cross-sectional survey Arti Singh, Hana Ross, Fiona Dobbie, Allen Gallagher, Tarja Kinnunen, Divine Logo, Olivia Boateng, Anna Gilmore, Linda Bauld, Ellis Owusu-Dabo BMJ Open
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