Assessment and projection of burden of cancer due to tobacco in India and its states till 2025
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K.L.E. University, Belagavi, India
International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India
Jang Bahadur Prasad   

K.L.E. University, JNMC Campus, Nehru Nagar, Belagavi, Karnataka 590010, India
Publication date: 2021-09-02
Tob. Induc. Dis. 2021;19(Suppl 1):A11
For effective planning and optimum allocation of resources, accurate assessment of burden due to tobacco and its projection is essential. There are number of reports in India during last 3-4 decades, reporting tobacco related cancers (TRC). However, there is no visible study in India attempting to assess cancers due to tobacco (CDT).

To assess CDT in India and states by sex and urban/rural and project the same till 2025.

The basic inputs required were 1) tobacco prevalence, 2) relative risk of cancer due to tobacco, 3) incidence rates of TRCs, and, 4) population. These were obtained respectively from 1) recent five rounds of NSSO, 2) our recently published study, 3) reports of PBCRs, and, 4) projections of Registrar General of India. Our recently published method was applied to assess the CDT and regression method for projection.

The overall burden of CDT in India was estimated to be 169 thousands in 2015 and it was projected to around 236 thousands by 2025, an increase of nearly 39.6%. CDT accounted for nearly half of TRCs. The CDT as percentage of TRC was highest for Tripura followed by Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram and West Bengal. Detailed analysis indicated regional diversity in both CDT and TRCs.

Present study reports absolute burden of CDT as well as the same as a percentage of TRC for India and its States till 2025. This may help policy planners and administrators in prioritizing the resources and proactive decisions pertaining to anti-tobacco measures. Non-availability of enough PBCRs to capture regional diversity may also be addressed by competent authorities.